Dimerco sees tight Asia freight capacity as AI demand holds

Dimerco’s July 2026 Asia-Pacific Freight Report says AI-related exports, resilient U.S. imports and seasonal constraints are keeping air and ocean freight markets under pressure across Asia. The report warns shippers to expect tight capacity, congestion and uneven lane conditions through peak season.

Why it matters: - AI and semiconductor demand are still shaping Asia-Pacific freight flows, which is keeping space tight on key air and ocean lanes. - Shippers face higher rates, longer lead times and more routing risk as peak season builds across Asia and beyond. - Dimerco says July planning should account for congestion, weather disruption and shifting geopolitical conditions.

What happened: - Dimerco Express Group released its July 2026 Asia-Pacific Freight Report on July 1, 2026. - The report says the freight market remains driven by high-tech demand, tight capacity and uneven disruption rather than a broad peak-season recovery. - The Global Manufacturing PMI held at 52.6 in May for a second straight month and stayed above 50 for the tenth month in a row. - Taiwan’s manufacturing PMI rose to 56.1 on semiconductor, AI server and electronics demand. - South Korea, Japan, Vietnam and India also remained in expansion.

The details: - Kathy Liu, VP, Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group, said AI-driven volumes have filled the TPE transit hub to capacity, and that space and rates on U.S. and regional lanes should stay under pressure until demand eases. - Airfreight demand stayed strong across Asia, with Bangkok and Singapore among the strongest intra-Asia destinations. - The short-lived frontloading of U.S.-bound cargo that began in early June has already normalized. - Taiwan-U.S. airfreight remains one of the tightest corridors, with both direct and indirect capacity constrained and rates rising. - Taipei-Europe air capacity is more stable. - Taiwan-to-Penang, Singapore, Bangkok and Chennai lanes are also under pressure. - South Korea is facing tight conditions tied to China transshipment cargo, e-commerce, HBM semiconductor shipments and equipment moving through Incheon. - Bangkok and Manila have not fully recovered from terminal congestion, which is extending door-to-door lead times. - In the Philippines, congestion at NAIA and limited staging space have left some cargo releases taking more than a week. - On ocean freight, strong U.S. import volumes have kept transpacific space tight and rates firm as peak season builds. - Dimerco advises shippers to pre-book three to four weeks ahead on key transpacific lanes. - July tariff changes remain a wildcard for demand patterns. - Ted Chen, Director of Ocean Freight, Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group, said U.S. import demand has stayed stronger than expected and that fuel pressure could ease if the Strait of Hormuz stays calm. - Ocean pressure is visible across East China, South China, Taiwan, South Korea and Southeast Asia, especially on long-haul lanes to the U.S. and Europe. - Carriers are managing capacity with blank sailings. - GRIs and Peak Season Surcharges are keeping rates firm. - In Europe, Rotterdam congestion and inland rail disruption around Hamburg and Bremerhaven are affecting reliability. - Dimerco identifies three main July risks: the provisional U.S.-Iran ceasefire, monsoon-season cargo handling risk and peak-season frontloading that could pull demand forward. - The Strait of Hormuz has reopened toll-free under a preliminary ceasefire framework, easing the immediate fuel threat. - Negotiations remain unresolved, and vessel traffic remains below pre-conflict levels. - The Southwest Monsoon is intensifying across Southeast Asia and South Asia. - Dimerco advises shippers to add buffer time on monsoon-exposed lanes and use moisture protection such as shrink-wrapping and barriers for sensitive cargo.

Between the lines: - The report suggests the market is being pushed by concentrated demand in AI-linked freight rather than a full recovery across all cargo types. - Capacity pressure looks especially sticky where semiconductors, electronics and transshipment cargo compete for space. - The mix of geopolitical uncertainty, weather risk and seasonal demand makes July a planning month rather than a clear turning point.

What's next: - Dimerco expects shippers to keep routing and surcharge budgets flexible while Middle East negotiations remain unresolved. - Early booking will remain important on high-demand air corridors, especially Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea. - China-Europe rail remains an alternative when air and ocean capacity are tight, with transit times from major China origins to Europe of roughly 19 to 27 days. - Shippers should monitor congestion in Bangkok and Manila and avoid assuming July strength will last unchanged through late Q3.

The bottom line: - Asia-Pacific freight markets are still running hot, and AI demand is a major reason capacity and pricing remain under pressure.